New States of Deliberation 2025 predictions part 1

1st July 2025 – P&R presidency contenders

Gavin St. Pier, Jonathan Le Tocq, Charles Parkinson and Mark Helyar will likely all stand. It’s my understanding that Lindsay De Sausmarez and Yvonne Burford don’t want to stand for the presidency right now but might in the future. Given their high polling, there will be calls for them to throw their hats into the ring. I think the choice, if only the men end up standing, will end up with either Le Tocq or Parkinson becoming the new President of P&R. Both of them have served in the same or similar capacities before. Obviously if Parkinson is elected, then GST+ is dead and will be undone but the house will be divided initially. If Le Tocq becomes President of P&R, then the healing can begin but I wouldn’t like to call which taxation model wins out (or perhaps both will, if Paul Montague and Sally Rochester have their way).

2nd July 2025 – election of P&R members

I think, from speaking to incumbents and hearing new candidates at hustings, that the contenders will be as follows:

  • Lindsay de Sausmarez
  • Yvonne Burford
  • Chris Blin (for Overseas Aid and the Wind Farm, although I suspect he might successfully lodge to move the Wind Farm Sub-Committee to Economic Development if he is successful in becoming President of that)
  • Sally Rochester
  • Liam McKenna
  • Jennifer Strachan
  • Andy Sloan
  • Andy Niles
  • David Dorrity

That’s nine. There aren’t that many seats on P&R. LDS, YB and CB will be interested in presidencies of other committees, so until this particular contest is settled, I don’t think I can predict the rest without several different scenarios being drawn up.

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Author: Tom Moore (deputy candidate, Guernsey)

Recent deputy candidate and political commentator. Worked in several industries including IT, food retail, charity sector, aviation and most recently finance.

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